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| KeyMessages | MensajesClaves | RainfallPotential | Flash FloodingPotential |
Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center
| Forecast Length* | Forecast Track Line | Initial Wind Field |
| | | |
* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical
Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic
How to use the cone graphic (video):
About this product:
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of thecenter of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the centerat the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to betropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecastuncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid whiteand stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depictsthe track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while thestippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical dataindicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropicalcyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. Toform the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along theforecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of theprevious five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formedby smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Theireffects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The areaexperiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosingthe most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricaneand tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen inthe Wind History graphic linked above.
Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, thechances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented intabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented ingraphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,and 64 kt thresholds.
Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.
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